Calculated Drag
Mike Stoker, Republican contender for the 35th Assembly District seat, thinks... his low-tax, less-government, pro-business, “100 percent economic agenda” will hold strong crossover appeal for independents and moderate Democrats in the district.
... Stoker’s betting on a stars-are-aligned political calculus to beat the odds and pull off an upset in 2010. For starters, there is a contested primary on the other side, which will require both [Susan] Jordan and [Das] Williams to spend money and other resources to get to the general election, an obstacle course Stoker likely will be spared.
Because 2010 is not a presidential election year, when voter turnout peaks, he believes he’ll also benefit from low vote totals in the liberal districts around Isla Vista and UCSB, giving the overall electorate a more centrist cast. Finally, he points to 2004, the last contested election race for an open seat in the 35th district, when Republican Bob Pohl made a competitive run, eventually losing 52.8-47.2 percent to Nava. In that race, Pohl’s final percentage was more than 15 points higher than GOP registration that year, while Nava ran about eight points ahead of his party on the Democratic side; from Stoker’s perspective, this means that Pohl captured about twice as many independent/decline-to-state voters as his rival.
... The problem for the Republican, however, is that since the 2004 race, the gap in partisan registration has accelerated even more, with the GOP’s registration level falling further behind the Democrats’ in just six years. But Stoker believes that the results of the May 19 special election, in which voters overwhelmingly defeated five state budget ballot initiatives sponsored by Gov. Schwarzenegger and the Democratic leadership of the Legislature, clearly signal a political sea change... Armed with this political prognosis, Stoker will try to position himself as the agent of change, portraying either Jordan or Williams as the status quo candidate of Democratic legislative leaders...
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For the full text, images and comments, please go to:
-- "Blue Dog Republican - Mike Stoker Seeks Democratic Votes in GOP Assembly Bid," By Jerry Roberts, SB INDEPENDENT, June 2, 2009
... Stoker’s betting on a stars-are-aligned political calculus to beat the odds and pull off an upset in 2010. For starters, there is a contested primary on the other side, which will require both [Susan] Jordan and [Das] Williams to spend money and other resources to get to the general election, an obstacle course Stoker likely will be spared.
Because 2010 is not a presidential election year, when voter turnout peaks, he believes he’ll also benefit from low vote totals in the liberal districts around Isla Vista and UCSB, giving the overall electorate a more centrist cast. Finally, he points to 2004, the last contested election race for an open seat in the 35th district, when Republican Bob Pohl made a competitive run, eventually losing 52.8-47.2 percent to Nava. In that race, Pohl’s final percentage was more than 15 points higher than GOP registration that year, while Nava ran about eight points ahead of his party on the Democratic side; from Stoker’s perspective, this means that Pohl captured about twice as many independent/decline-to-state voters as his rival.
... The problem for the Republican, however, is that since the 2004 race, the gap in partisan registration has accelerated even more, with the GOP’s registration level falling further behind the Democrats’ in just six years. But Stoker believes that the results of the May 19 special election, in which voters overwhelmingly defeated five state budget ballot initiatives sponsored by Gov. Schwarzenegger and the Democratic leadership of the Legislature, clearly signal a political sea change... Armed with this political prognosis, Stoker will try to position himself as the agent of change, portraying either Jordan or Williams as the status quo candidate of Democratic legislative leaders...
---------------------------
For the full text, images and comments, please go to:
-- "Blue Dog Republican - Mike Stoker Seeks Democratic Votes in GOP Assembly Bid," By Jerry Roberts, SB INDEPENDENT, June 2, 2009
Labels: 35th Assembly District, Mike Stoker
posted by Malcolm
at
6/03/2009
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1 Comments :
This is why Progressive Democrats in Santa Barbara need to get out the vote to make sure that Stoker does not win!
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